KISMAYO TALKS FAIL: At a recent summit, Somali leaders
New UN Envoy Michael Keating, who just arrived in Mogadishu, has a clear task ahead: help intransigent leaders find a consensus on a complicated “hybrid” election that abandoned for this election cycle due to insecurity and technical delays.
The obstinance of Somali leaders and their , as well as the difficulty of implementing any “hybrid” election format, increasingly point toward the likelihood of an unsavory term extension for President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.
TRUCKS AND TRAINEES
UAE continues efforts to gain influence in Somalia, in this case by donating 10 trucks to Somalia’s SW administration.
Meanwhile, Ethiopia has continued to train and equip new Somali forces across the SW region, as shown in the video below from a training of Darawish units this month in Qansaxdheere.
SW region probably has the least robust local security forces among provincial administrations.
AMISOM BASE ATTACK
♣ CRISIS MANAGEMENT: Hotline for victims’ families launched
♣ DETERRENCE: Expert asks why no trip wires were installed outside base to warn of attack: (3:58 mark)
…spies and warnings aside, a weak relationship between the KDF and SNA probably hampered coordination, as a recent report stated: There is little or no interaction between KDF & SNA…Somali army commanders are not allowed into KDF camps.
♣ Kenya’s military is probing an ISIS link to the El Adde attack, but it is unlikely since the battalion that carried it out was named after an al-Qaida leader. It is more likely al-Shabaab — which has used these tactics before — bragged about the AQ tribute battalion’s success to re-establish dominance over ISIS enthusiasts in Somalia.
♣ Do Kenyan air strikes work? Kenya believes al-Shabaab may be using military hostages “as human shields,” perhaps to deter the KDF from employing retaliatory strikes.
…But, the military conducted air strikes on al-Shabaab positions in Somalia, and one unverified report claimed strikes inadvertently “targeted livestock.”
The question remains: How can Kenya revenge the El Adde attack in a way that addresses its poor relationship with the SNA and local communities?
Categories: Around the Horn