Author Archives

• Senior American Military Officials Comment on Al-Shabaab and ISIS

  By Tres Thomas on December 7, 2015 • ( 1 )

  

  Al-Shabaab’s strength and ability is weakening, but the group remains the biggest threat in the region, according to a senior American military official for east Africa. The threat of ISIS is also believed to have grown since 2014, according to a Marine… Read More ›

• Kenya’s Contrasting Responses to Border Conflict with Ethiopia and Somalia

  By Tres Thomas on November 27, 2015 • ( 0 )

  

  Last Friday, Ethiopian forces killed three Kenyan police officers and a village chief during a cross-border attack in pursuit of Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) rebels. Kenya’s Daily Nation noted Ethiopian forces have carried out at least five often deadly incursions… Read More ›

• Al-Shabaab’s Battle with ISIS: What’s at Stake?

  By Tres Thomas on November 18, 2015 • ( 0 )

  

  ISIS supporters have been pleading al-Shabaab to drop its affiliation with al-Qai’da (AQ) and pledge loyalty to the Islamic State — like its counterpart “Boko Haram” (aka Islamic State in West Africa). To date, small nodes of support to ISIS in Somalia… Read More ›

• UPDATE: Somalia Discusses Complicated Next Steps for 2016 Elections

  By Tres Thomas on October 23, 2015 • ( 2 )

  

  From 19-20 October, Somalia held the next phase of its National Consultative Forum (NCF) in order to determine an election format for 2016. The event came after international and Somali officials previously declared that one person-one vote polls were not… Read More ›

• Kenya Files Argument in Court Over Maritime Border Dispute with Somalia

  By Tres Thomas on October 8, 2015 • ( 1 )

  

  This week, Kenya submitted filings to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) on why the court should not yet hear its maritime border case with the Somali government. Kenya, which has already awarded exploration blocks in the disputed territory,  wants… Read More ›

• New Social Media Campaign Launched Against Al-Shabaab in Kenya

  By Tres Thomas on October 7, 2015 • ( 0 )

  

  At the end of July, two closely linked media campaigns were set up in Kenya to counter radicalisation in the country, and the efforts correspond with the Kenyan military’s movements to root out al-Shabaab from the Boni Forest area of the Kenya-Somalia… Read More ›

• Analysis: Somalia’s Hopes for 2016 Elections Hang In the Balance

  By Tres Thomas on October 1, 2015 • ( 3 )

  

  Last week, Somalia formed a National Consultative Forum (NCF) tasked with deciding a format for next year’s parliamentary and presidential elections. Earlier this year on several occasions, Somali and foreign officials made it clear that one person-one vote elections were… Read More ›

• Al-Shabaab Continues Mass Raid Tactics Against AMISOM

  By Tres Thomas on September 2, 2015 • ( 2 )

  

  On  the early morning of 1 September, a reported 200 al-Shabaab militants raided an AMISOM base in the Lower Shabelle town of Janaale, killing between 20 and  50 Ugandan troops while 50 others are believed to be missing. Al-Shabaab used… Read More ›

• As Madobe Wins the Presidency, Jubaland Politics Remain Highly Contested in Somalia

  By Tres Thomas on August 18, 2015 • ( 0 )

  

  On 15 August, the Interim Jubba Administration’s (IJA) parliament — which federal MPs attempted to dissolve in June due to a contested selection process — elected Ahmed Madobe as regional president in a landslide victory garnering 68 of 74 votes. Madobe’s supporters,… Read More ›

• Somalia’s Troubled Transition: Vision 2016 Revisited

  By Tres Thomas on August 3, 2015 • ( 0 )

  

  The following is the Executive Summary from the Sahan report: SOMALIA’S TROUBLED TRANSITION: VISION 2016 REVISITED. To read the full report, click here. Somalia is politically in far better shape than when President Hassan Sheikh took office in 2012, but much of… Read More ›

• AMISOM and Somali Forces Take Major Towns from Al-Shabaab — What’s Next?

  By Tres Thomas on July 27, 2015 • ( 0 )

  

  Kenyan, Ethiopian, and Somali forces recently seized Baardheere and Diinsoor from al-Shabaab after a long pause in major operations and a withdrawal of several towns during Ramadan due to al-Shabaab’s devastating attack against AMISOM’s Burundian troops in Leego.​​ Timed perfectly… Read More ›

• Puntland, Galmudug, ASWJ, and the Somali Government Set to Face Off over Federalism Disputes

  By Tres Thomas on July 10, 2015 • ( 0 )

  

  The process to form a regional administration in central Somalia is in a tenuous state. While it first appeared that building the Jubaland and Southwest administrations would be the toughest assignments in Somalia’s state formation process, the stakes appear even higher in part because it has reignited border… Read More ›

• ​ANALYSIS: AMISOM Vacates 10 Towns in Somalia Amid Al-Shabaab’s Ramadan Attacks

  By Tres Thomas on July 3, 2015 • ( 4 )

  

  On June 26, al-Shabaab executed one of its biggest attacks ever against AMISOM forces as it overran Burundians who had been manning a base in Leego, situated 100km northwest of Mogadishu. Al-Shabaab claimed to have killed more than 80 Burundians… Read More ›