KISMAYO TALKS FAIL: At a recent summit, Somali leaders failed to reach a consensus on an election format for the next parliament, whose MPs are to elect a president later this year. 

New UN Envoy Michael Keating, who just arrived in Mogadishu, has a clear task ahead: help intransigent leaders find a consensus on a complicated “hybrid” election that might be as difficult to implement as the one person-one vote effort that was abandoned for this election cycle due to insecurity and technical delays.

The obstinance of Somali leaders and their personal interests, as well as the difficulty of implementing any “hybrid” election format, increasingly point toward the likelihood of an unsavory term extension for President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.

♣ Puntland/Jubaland want a district-based clan formula to choose MPs while Galmudug and SW states want to use the 4.5 clan formula. 

♣ Somaliland balks at Somalia “meddling“, registers thousands for own upcoming election.

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TRUCKS AND TRAINEES

UAE continues efforts to gain influence in Somalia, in this case by donating 10 trucks to Somalia’s SW administration.

Meanwhile, Ethiopia has continued to train and equip new Somali forces across the SW region, as shown in the video below from a training of Darawish units this month in Qansaxdheere.

SW region probably has the least robust local security forces among provincial administrations.

AMISOM BASE ATTACK

♣ CRISIS MANAGEMENT: Hotline for victims’ families launched

♣ Kenyans seek info for Kenya Defense Forces (KDF) victims on social and traditional media…and military bases

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♣ DETERRENCE: Expert asks why no trip wires were installed outside base to warn of attack: (3:58 mark)

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♣ RUMORS: Did al-Shabaab get help from a mole in the KDF camp? And did SNA warn the camp of the attack beforehand?

…spies and warnings aside, a weak relationship between the KDF and SNA probably hampered coordination, as a recent report stated: There is little or no interaction between KDF & SNA…Somali army commanders are not allowed into KDF camps.

♣ Kenya’s military is probing an ISIS link to the El Adde attack, but it is unlikely since the battalion that carried it out was named after an al-Qaida leader. It is more likely al-Shabaab  — which has used these tactics before — bragged about the AQ tribute battalion’s success to re-establish dominance over ISIS enthusiasts in Somalia.

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♣ Do Kenyan air strikes work? Kenya believes al-Shabaab may be using military hostages “as human shields,” perhaps to deter the KDF from employing retaliatory strikes.

…But, the military conducted air strikes on al-Shabaab positions in Somalia, and one unverified report claimed strikes inadvertently “targeted livestock.”

The question remains: How can Kenya revenge the El Adde attack in a way that addresses its poor relationship with the SNA and local communities?