Author Archives
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Somali Regional Leaders Must Present Specific Policy Ideas to Resolve Crises
In early May at a week-long summit in Garowe, Somali leaders failed to agree on a myriad of issues related to security, elections, political meddling, and revenue sharing. There is no way forward for resolving the key policy differences between the… Read More ›
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New Data: Main Factors Preventing Dadaab Refugee Return to Somalia
Analysis of new data shows that a range of factors will prevent any prospect of mass returns from Kenya’s Dadaab refugee camp, including: [1] an unwillingness of refugees to return, [2] Kenya’s withdrawal of forces to the border, and [3]… Read More ›
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Analysis: Ethiopia and the Somali Government Dangerously Escalate SW Election Process
Ethiopian forces, in coordination with Somali police, detained former al-Shabaab senior leader and Southwest (SW) regional presidential candidate Mukhtar Robow in Baidoa and transported him to Mogadishu on accusations of being a “security threat”. In a statement, the Federal Government… Read More ›
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3 Potential Reasons for Al-Shabaab’s Departure from Key Somali Port Town
What happened: Al-Shabaab vacated the port town of Harardheere in Somalia’s Galmudug region, which it controlled for the last 10 years. Potential Drivers: There are at least three reasons why the group may have left the town: 1) Drone Strikes: Local… Read More ›
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Allegations of Interference Jeopardize Somalia’s Regional Elections
What’s happened: The newly reconstituted election commission for Somalia’s Southwest (SW) administration has delayed regional presidential elections for a second time to December 5th. The new electoral members are reportedly receiving pressure from the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) to… Read More ›
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Former Trump Advisors Profit from Anti-Somalia Policies as Lobbyists
The Somali government has agreed to pay lobbying firm Sonoran Policy Group (SPG) $100,000 per month until December 2018 to engage in lobbying efforts aimed at removing Somalia from U.S. President Donald Trump’s travel ban and re-opening part of the… Read More ›
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There Are Conflicting Accounts of Future U.S. Involvement in Somalia
How will U.S. military operations in Somalia evolve during the rest of the Donald Trump administration? On June 4, the New York Times reported the Pentagon was likely to make cuts among the 1,200 U.S. Special Forces deployed to Africa because Special… Read More ›
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3 Notes on the Al-Shabaab Attack on U.S.-allied Forces in Somalia
On June 8, al-Shabaab ambushed U.S. Special forces who were building a command outpost with 800 combined Kenyan and Somali forces north of Kismayo. The group did not claim to inflict mass casualties on a scale of other high-profile attacks,… Read More ›
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Disputed Reports of Civilian Casualties After Joint U.S.-Somali Raid
U.S. and Somali forces have been accused of killing five civilians in a raid that resulted in the capture of three alleged al-Shabaab commanders in the remote village of Macalinka — 25 miles outside Mogadishu. Both independent and pro-Shabaab media… Read More ›
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Despite AMISOM and Drones, Al-Shabaab most deadly African Islamic Militant Group
Al-Shabaab was the most deadly Islamist militant group in Africa over the past year, according to a new study by the Africa Center for Strategic Studies (ACSS) in Washington, D.C. The U.S. government-affiliated think tank revealed important trends and statistics… Read More ›
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Can Somalia Seal the Galmudug-ASWJ Peace Deal?
As part of his tour of Somali regional states, Somali President Mohamed Abdullahi “Farmaajo” visited Dhusamareeb this week to validate the December 2017 peace agreement between the Galmudug administration and Sufi militia Ahlu Sunna Wal Jama’a (ASWJ). ASWJ, as a multi-clan… Read More ›
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Around the Horn: Dadaab’s Decline, Kenyan Political Violence, and More
This month, UNHCR is reporting that more than 70,200 Somali refugees have been repatriated from Dadaab, and over 17,400 are registered as “willing to return” to Somalia. An interesting note in the report was that returns to Baidoa had been “suspended… Read More ›
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Around the Horn: Al-Shabaab showcase looted weapons from Jubaland raid and more
Somalia: On 9 September, al-Shabaab released photos of supplies it looted during its 3 September attack on Buulo Gaduud, just outside Kismayo. It claimed to have killed over two dozen Somali troops in the raid. The group appeared to capture vehicles,… Read More ›
