Author Archives
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Amid New Qatar Allegations, Is Gulf Investment Good for Somalia?
In a span of three days last week, Qatar went from alleged villain to aspiring hero in Somalia. First came the allegation that Qatar had funded a terror attack in Puntland that was later claimed by the Islamic State supporters… Read More ›
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Analysis: Does Somalia’s Jubaland Leader Deserve Another Term?
By the end of this August, clan elders from Somalia’s Jubaland region will select a new assembly whose parliamentarians will vote for a regional president. It is accepted as a virtual certainty that the incumbent president, Ahmed Madobe, will retain… Read More ›
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Questions Regarding the Power-Sharing Agreement in Sudan
On July 17, representatives of Sudan’s protest movement under the Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC) signed the first part of a power-sharing agreement with the Transitional Military Council (TMC) following the December 2018 uprising that led to the downfall… Read More ›
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Somali Regional Leaders Must Present Specific Policy Ideas to Resolve Crises
In early May at a week-long summit in Garowe, Somali leaders failed to agree on a myriad of issues related to security, elections, political meddling, and revenue sharing. There is no way forward for resolving the key policy differences between the… Read More ›
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New Data: Main Factors Preventing Dadaab Refugee Return to Somalia
Analysis of new data shows that a range of factors will prevent any prospect of mass returns from Kenya’s Dadaab refugee camp, including: [1] an unwillingness of refugees to return, [2] Kenya’s withdrawal of forces to the border, and [3]… Read More ›
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Analysis: Ethiopia and the Somali Government Dangerously Escalate SW Election Process
Ethiopian forces, in coordination with Somali police, detained former al-Shabaab senior leader and Southwest (SW) regional presidential candidate Mukhtar Robow in Baidoa and transported him to Mogadishu on accusations of being a “security threat”. In a statement, the Federal Government… Read More ›
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3 Potential Reasons for Al-Shabaab’s Departure from Key Somali Port Town
What happened: Al-Shabaab vacated the port town of Harardheere in Somalia’s Galmudug region, which it controlled for the last 10 years. Potential Drivers: There are at least three reasons why the group may have left the town: 1) Drone Strikes: Local… Read More ›
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Allegations of Interference Jeopardize Somalia’s Regional Elections
What’s happened: The newly reconstituted election commission for Somalia’s Southwest (SW) administration has delayed regional presidential elections for a second time to December 5th. The new electoral members are reportedly receiving pressure from the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) to… Read More ›
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Former Trump Advisors Profit from Anti-Somalia Policies as Lobbyists
The Somali government has agreed to pay lobbying firm Sonoran Policy Group (SPG) $100,000 per month until December 2018 to engage in lobbying efforts aimed at removing Somalia from U.S. President Donald Trump’s travel ban and re-opening part of the… Read More ›
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There Are Conflicting Accounts of Future U.S. Involvement in Somalia
How will U.S. military operations in Somalia evolve during the rest of the Donald Trump administration? On June 4, the New York Times reported the Pentagon was likely to make cuts among the 1,200 U.S. Special Forces deployed to Africa because Special… Read More ›
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3 Notes on the Al-Shabaab Attack on U.S.-allied Forces in Somalia
On June 8, al-Shabaab ambushed U.S. Special forces who were building a command outpost with 800 combined Kenyan and Somali forces north of Kismayo. The group did not claim to inflict mass casualties on a scale of other high-profile attacks,… Read More ›
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Disputed Reports of Civilian Casualties After Joint U.S.-Somali Raid
U.S. and Somali forces have been accused of killing five civilians in a raid that resulted in the capture of three alleged al-Shabaab commanders in the remote village of Macalinka — 25 miles outside Mogadishu. Both independent and pro-Shabaab media… Read More ›
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Despite AMISOM and Drones, Al-Shabaab most deadly African Islamic Militant Group
Al-Shabaab was the most deadly Islamist militant group in Africa over the past year, according to a new study by the Africa Center for Strategic Studies (ACSS) in Washington, D.C. The U.S. government-affiliated think tank revealed important trends and statistics… Read More ›
