**UPDATED APRIL 20, 2012**
Interestingly, the number of separate unconfirmed reports alleging al-Amriki is alive currently outnumber those indicating his death. But since all these reports are unconfirmed, they are all equally speculative until audio or video evidence–or at least an official al-Shabaab statement–appears.
Regardless of which speculation is true, the PR nightmare behind the al-Amriki situation most likely will be a net loss for al-Shabaab: it certainly should instill fear in all foreigners among its ranks and it’s further evidence of cracks in al-Shabaab–which isn’t necessarily good if it leads to more inter-militant violence.
That said, the Hammami drama has not prevented the group from carrying out attacks in Gedo, Bay region, and Mogadishu recently, so al-Shabaab is sustaining operations throughout the country and still controls its main source of revenue in Kismayo port.
The previous post is updated below:
Here is an updated run-down of the different sources that have speculated about Abu Mansur al-Amriki (Omar Hammami) since his “urgent message” video, which preceded allegations of his execution (or lack thereof).
SPECULATION #1: AL-AMRIKI WAS EXECUTED BY MILITIAMEN AND THEN BURIED BETWEEN MARKA AND BARAAWE: http://gedoonline.com/?p=36849 (in Somali).
This report is the basis for all subsequent reports alleging the execution of al-Amriki. According to the unconfirmed report, the execution supposedly happened during the timeframe around April 4, 2012 that al-Shabaab leaders were meeting not too far from Marka to determine al-Amriki’s fate. There is not an apparent follow-up report confirming following this one.
SPECULATION #2: AL-SHABAAB PLANS TO DEPORT AL-AMRIKI, POSSIBLY TO YEMEN
http://arlaadii.net/?p=536 (in Somali). This report came out on March 23 and was the first article with a purported update on the al-Amriki situation after his video release. It stated that al-Shabaab wanted to avoid executing al-Amriki in order not to scare off other foreign fighters in the group. To my knowledge, this report was never corroborated by a subsequent source.
SPECULATION #3: Al-AMRIKI IS ALIVE AND WELL, ACCORDING TO SELF-PROCLAIMED AL-SHABAAB MEDIA EDITOR @Saud_Khalifaa
SPECULATION #4: AL-AMRIKI IS ALIVE BUT UNDER HOUSE ARREST IN MARKA, ACCORDING TO A REPORT THAT CITES AN UN-NAMED AL-SHABAAB OFFICIAL IN MARKA:
SPECULATION #5:AL-AMRIKI IS ALIVE, ATTENDING PRAYERS, AND UNDER TIGHT SECURITY IN KISMAYO WHILE UNDER INVESTIGATION: According to Somalia Report, al-Amriki was seen attending noon prayers at Jama-ul-Qadeem mosque in Kismayo, heavily guarded by foreign and Somali fighters as he continues to be investigated. However, Somalia Report’s journalistic integrity has been itself speculative lately.
Many on-lookers are seeking audio or visual evidence from either this or other sources to dispel any doubt.